18 Expert Picks
John Means was brilliant in his 2024 debut, but this is an awful matchup for a repeat. The D-Backs have extreme OPS splits based on the handedness of the pitcher, lighting lefties like Means up to the tune of a .853 OPS. This start also comes at home, where Means has been slightly worse in his career than on the road, but the other important point is that he's made just seven MLB starts since 2021 and we just can't expect this type of length unless the game is unfolding perfectly like it did in his first start and last rehab start. With Arizona having an offense that should cause trouble, I can't see Means getting through six innings despite being favored to do so.
Tijuan Walker is very much a work in progress in his return from a lengthy absence. And while I generally just hammer the Marlins on the run line every once in a while the Fish get frisky. So for this value I will just take the mighty Phils, on pace for potentially baseball's best record, to find a way to win this ballgame with their superior, well, everything.
We've had some very bad beats lately on overs due to some strange fourth quarter occurrences (meddling officials, weird substitutions, starts being pulled way early, teams stopping trying to score), so with a quick turnaround between these teams we are approaching it a little differently. In the first half in this series we've seen 121, 112, and 126 points. Both teams getting to or near 60 in the first 24 minutes would not be odd. Seemed like Knicks might be holding back a bit in Game 3 knowing with fast turn to Game 4 might behoove them to save killer mentality for then. Either way pace will be super fast from the jump in IND, but might not be able to hold it 4 quarters
Simeon Woods-Richardson has allowed four earned runs in four starts, one with two ER and two with one ER. His 1.74 ERA may be a bit fortunate, but making him a strong favorite to give up at least three earned runs today doesn't make a lot of sense to me. The Blue Jays average just 3.58 runs per game and own a below-average 88 OPS+ against righties. The offense has gotten worse in May, with just a .624 OPS overall, and with Woods-Richardson coming off his best start of the season, I think these odds are skewed in the wrong direction.
Will update soon...
Will talk about this pick on Early Edge and update after. ...
Bryce Miller is having an excellent season for the Seattle Mariners. Miller draws a plus matchup this evening against the Oakland As lineup that ranks 17th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. Miller has gone 6+ IP in five of his last six outings.
Cole Ragans has been lights out and is quickly proven to be one of the top starters in the MLB. He has pitched at least 6 IP in 16/20 starts since joining the Royals dating back to last season. He will face a middling Angels lineup that has been decent but is without Mike Trout. Look for Ragans to produce another quality start.
Dodgers are obviously hot and starting to look like the best team in ball. They have given James Paxton a Big Maple fountain of youth, staking him to leads and faring well with him on the mound. They've won 5 of his 6 starts, all by 2 runs or more, with a +18 RD in the wins. The Padres starter carries an ERA around 6. He got away with walking 4 batters in 5 IP in his prior start vs the Dodgers; won't happen again.
The Reds are certainly scuffling, and injuries have taken their toll but Los Gigantes have issues scoring runs and winning games, too. I love the nasty lefty the Reds are running out there and SF is 21st in MLB in OPS vs lefties. The Giants young starter is getting whacked around. Reds have won 4 of Lodolo's 5 starts, all by at least 3 runs
White Sox getting a little heady stringing some wins together but I'm not buying Clevinger after a long layoff and he was garbage in his first outing. Guardians know him inside out and the Cleveland starter seems to be maturing with his approach and evolving as a pitcher. Prices vs the Sox are coming down with them winning some games, but they can't play from behind I suspect they are doing that here. Maybe by the first inning
Simeon Woods RIchardson was the key piece in the Berrios trade and he has been stellar this season. I like him getting a piece of his old franchise here, and doing so at a time when the Jays aren't hitting the ball or playing with much fire. The Twins proved me wrong; I thought they would regress hard after winning 12 in a row vs mostly crap teams, but they have found their groove and the lineup is exponentially better than what it was three weeks ago. I think they kid can match Gausman and the Twins can win vs TOR pen
The Orioles win a lot, they cover a ton at home and they pound mediocre right-handed pitching. The lineup is loaded with lefties and switch-hitters who mash from the left side and most of them are in good form these days. John Means was a stud in his first start of the year and the new Camden Yards suits him extremely well. D-Backs were all tied up by a lefty starter Fri night and I could see more of the same Sat. Ryne Nelson has a 5.23 ERA; he has severe reverse splits but I think BAL lefty and righty bats can do damage. Should be much warmer Sat afternoon and ball should carry better
Carolina has lost three consecutive games by one goal despite outshooting New York in all three games, totaling 129-87. Closeout games are often difficult to win on the road. I still like the Hurricanes to win and force a game five at MSG!
Luka was way under in game 1…he barely went over in game 2 (finished with 10 after getting 7 early and flukey). Surprised this didn’t go down to 8.5