13 Expert Picks
Daulton Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Let's take a shot at +500!
It's daunting to go against the Dodgers, who have a six-game winning streak. However, the Blue Jays hope to avoid a three-game sweep by sending Kevin Gausman to the mound. Toronto's three and four batters, Varsho and Turner, had a rough day, going 0-for-8 with five strikeouts on Saturday. Nonetheless, Varsho has a good record against Michael Grove, having batted .429 with two home runs in just seven career at-bats against him. Hence, I plan to add his home run prop. Following this game, the Dodgers will fly to Arizona for a series against the D-Backs. Play Toronto!
There were such oddities in Game 3 of this series on Friday night that we wonder if Opryland would have been a more fitting locale than Bridgestone Arena. Vancouver won a game when it took only 12 shots on goal for 60 minutes, and did so with its back-up goalie (Casey DeSmith) standing on his head in the 2-1 win. Nashville was left to rue several missed chances, but no reason for Preds fans to fret, as this series have been effectively zig-zagging, and Juuse Saros has been good enough in goal (2.03 in this series) to help Nashville get back to level before heading back to Vancouver. Play Preds on Puck Line
Philly should likely be ahead 2-1 in this series, still kicking itself for throwing away Game 2 in the last 30 seconds last Monday night at MSG. But the answer back home on Thursday at Wells Fargo Center was emphatic, pulling clear of the Knicks in the second half, with Joel Embiid near unstoppable as he scored 50 points. The Sixers also survived a 39-point Jalen Brunson onslaught, and solved Tom Thibodeau's defense enough to his almost 55% from the floor. We'd be surprised if this series doesn't return to New York level, with both teams at two wins apiece. Play Sixers
Oakland is providing an irresistible combination for "under" results...very good pitching combined with very poor hitting. For the latter, recent numbers tell the story, with only 19 runs scored across the past nine games, but combined with solid work on the mound that pitchers like Sunday starter Paul Blackburn (2.03 ERA) has provided thus far, "unders" (12-6-1 last 19 A's games) almost seem inevitable. Add in Birds starter Albert Suarez not allowing an earned run in two starts and the recipe for another low-scoring Oakland game (as the first two in this series) in easy to identify. Play A's-O's "Under"
Locking this prop in, will update analysis ASAP.
The Milwaukee Bucks will be without their two best players in Giannis and Damian Lillard who account for nearly 55 PPG, in addition to 36 FGA's. Brook Lopez is going to have to step up if the Bucks are to have a chance to survive. We know Indiana wants to get out and run and play out a break neck pace. I expect Lopez to get up a lot of shots and with Milwaukee likely playing from behind, it wouldn't surprise me to see him take 6+ threes in this game.
James Harden has scored 21 or more points in all three games this series, while averaging 41.7 minutes. Kawhi Leonard (knee) is questionable and might sit after not looking like himself Friday. When Leonard missed Game 1, Harden scored 28 points on 9-of-17 shooting. Look for another 20-plus game from Harden, whether or not Leonard plays.
While this would certainly qualify as a strong matchup against a Reds lineup that is 4th in the majors in K Rate, I don't believe Dane Dunning should be 6.5 versus any opponent. Dunning's underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired and considering he hasnt eclipsed 5 IP in three consecutive starts, in addition to 8 ER and 9 BBs, he's simply an auto fade at 6.5.
I project another high scoring affair here as these two meet for the 9th time this season. On 7 occasions they've combined for 233 or more points and had just 203 in the other. Sure, Game 3 went OT, but even at the end of regulation there were 222 points on the board. Bucks still lacking their best bigs to defend, Pacers are a bad defensive team, and MIL can slow the pace down occasionally, but not enough to hold this under 220. The 3 meetings in IND have produced 249, 272 and 250 points. Yeah, D rules in the playoffs, and unders have been prevalent, but not here. Pacers scored 121+ in 6 of 8 vs MIL;113+ in 7 of 8.
This has turned into total one way traffic and with that first road win under their belts I don't think the Wolves let up here. MIN defensive prowess is a real problem for the Suns, and the Suns lack of quality and depth bigs who play big beyond their starting center if a problem, too. Wolves can run when they want and win in half court when they want and rotation up front leading to 50+ points in paint. ANT provides instant offense and Suns without Grayson get a lot more predictable to defend. MIN up 156-110 in paint in series. KD (3rd straight -20 game) can't take over by himself. MIN won't give away easy three-ball looks; Booker not getting enough shots off
I thought this series had major sweep potential going in and figured these games could get sideways. With the LAC bringing their A game in the opener I took a step back but this now looks like the series I expected, albeit a little lower scoring. That plays in the Mavs hands. LAC was the 23rd ranked team in D ranking from ASG on, and Kawhi isn't close to being healthy and this quick turnaround on road is a problem. Chippy series favors Dallas and Mavs content to win games comfortably under 200 points. Luka can negate Harden, Mavs back to loading up in twos in the paint (bet they top 52 paint points from Game 3) and Kyrie finally found touch G 3.
Unless Bell's palsy affects the ability to run, shoot or jump -- I thought it was a green pepper species -- then it should not matter Joel Embiid apparently had/has it. Clearly didn't in Game 3. And he basically just Namath-ed the series, so his legacy is on the line at least in Game 4 now. The only guarantee I have made in my life? That I meet Katarina Witt. Still waiting yet somehow I have met Tonya Harding in person. What else should I expect at a monster truck rally? (Not usually my thing but long story. Yes, I did ask her to hit my leg and she did. No interest in meeting Nancy Kerrigan.) Philly should be up 2-1.
Past Picks
There's some rumblings of internal strife within the Lakers locker room, and in Game 3 I saw a team that looks ready for the offseason. Credit to Anthony Davis and LeBron James for how they've played in this series, but their supporting cast simply isn't there. Nuggets close this series out and move on. I expect Denver to record a near double-digit win in this one.
Tyler Herro had a huge game 2 and led the Heat to a victory while splitting the series before heading back to Miami. This was a gutsy performance but I believe they caught Boston napping and I believe the Celtics will be motivated in game 3. Boston knows the key to stopping Miami is slowing down Herro and this is simply a big number for the combo guard.