So who will the Bulls pick? I'll tell you who they'll pick. They'll pick Derrick Rose, and here's why. The NBA is all about trends, and point guards are in these days thanks to Deron Williams and Chris Paul. And trends always trump history in sports.
If the Bulls went with history, they'd take Michael Beasley, or Brook Lopez. But as we said, point guards are in, so they'll take Rose. And Rose will probably be good, he'll probably be exciting and he'll probably turn players like Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah (well, let's not get too ahead of ourselves) into solid big men.
But can this one player bring a title back to Chicago? If history means anything, no.
Since 1990, only two teams with All-Star point guards have won a championship. That would be the 1990 Pistons with Isiah Thomas and the 2007 Spurs with Tony Parker.
And since 1990 do you know which team playing in the NBA Finals almost always featured the assists leader? That's right, the losing. Every single year since 1990, except Chauncey Billups in 2004, the losing team has won the traditional assists battle.
In fact, taking away Magic Johnson, you would have to go all the way back to the 1978 Bullets to find a team that won a title and had the assists leader.
But you say, Kay, point guards do more than dish the ball. That assists are skewed stats since creating a scoring play doesn't always mean the same as a recorded assist. True and true again.
You also say, "look at what Chris Paul does in New Orleans. Look at what Deron Williams does for Utah. Look what Jason Kidd, Steve Nash and Mark Jackson did for their teams throughout the years. Look at John Stockton. Look at..."
Again, I can't argue point guards don't make a big difference. The thing is they just don't seem to be the one piece that equates with raising a banner. Title-winning teams have superstars, particularly superstars in the post. Taking away the Jordan Bulls, the title teams have had perennial All-Stars like Shaq, Duncan, Hakeem and Rasheed.
AIf you're a believer that Beasley -- or even Lopez -- is that special post presence, somebody who could carry a team, it's hard to pick against him. I see him following a Rasheed Wallace trajectory, but with a little less range.
But the Bulls will likely pick Rose. The Memphis product made his name in the tournament, and that carries weight come draft time. He's also a local kid and he keeps away from trouble like Charles Barkley and a GA meeting. Just be sure to remember Bulls fans, none of the team's still standing in the playoffs are led by superstar point guards (Tony Parker is really a two-guard).
On to the best blogs ... around!
Change is Coming is picking up what I'm putting down, I think. The blog has Beasley going No. 1, and I too like Mayo potentially landing in New York.
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After watching Game 1, The Heart Of The Matter is a Boston believer, despite the two seven-game series it just played and Detroit's experience. Now if only the blogger would use paragraph breaks.
What's wrong with Ray Allen? The Sporting Noose. has the answer, and takes us back to Latrell in Minnesota.
Klick of the Day
This is what I do my morning workouts to.