BY ISRAEL GUTIERREZ
There will be a party at AmericanAirlines Arena on May 20.
There is a 75 percent chance that everyone invited will leave slightly disappointed.
There is more than a 50-50 chance that those attending will drive home so angry, the Florida Highway Patrol should be on high alert.
There is better than a 1-in-3 chance that the party people will leave swearing at a higher being, convinced their favorite basketball team is cursed and contemplating switching allegiances just so their own lives won't be contaminated.
Can't wait. Sounds like a blast.
Maybe it should be promoted not as a celebration but as a prayer meeting, since that is what the NBA Draft lottery comes down to. A team with the worst record in the league, thus needing the most help to turn around its fortunes, is left relying on crossed fingers and the tiny, colorfully dyed feet of dead rabbits.
The Heat is that team this year. But unlike the Dolphins, who knew even before their season ended that they would have the first choice at selecting a franchise-elevating player, the Heat has to sit and hope its fate isn't that of 12 of the previous 14 NBA teams in the same position. As if the Heat hasn't lost enough in the past seven months, it could easily do so again May 20, with that potential loss meaning so much more than the previous 67.
It is too late for the Heat's benefit, but it is about time the NBA changes those odds. There is far too much at stake for teams such as Miami to have to rely on this much luck.
You can blame the Houston Rockets, really.
In 1984, the league's two worst teams simply flipped a coin to decide who chose No. 1 overall. And the Rockets, who had Ralph Sampson but decided they needed another franchise player, infamously tanked the second half of the season to drop into that bottom two with Portland.
It worked, and Houston drafted Hakeem Olajuwon.
The system has changed several times since then, going from coins to envelopes (perhaps even a frozen one) to ping-pong balls with logos to ping-pong balls with number combinations.
And yet, there still aren't many happy parties.
As late as last offseason, the NBA's competition committee discussed ways to alter the lottery to help satisfy all three teams that were still grieving from falling out of the top three in the draft.
This season, Warriors coach Don Nelson even admitted that his 48-victory team shouldn't have even the slightest chance of stealing the No. 1 pick from a desperate Heat or Grizzlies team.
The Celtics had been burned so famously by the lottery system that Boston fans were convinced Len Bias was haunting the franchise.
But the league stood firm because of the Rockets scenario. The lottery, in the league's opinion, does the best job of discouraging teams from losing on purpose and therefore damaging the integrity of the game.
MORE THAN A PLAYER
The NBA, though, should really consider the other side of the argument.
The No. 1 pick is hardly a sure thing. Since 1989, more than a third of the No. 1 picks can be considered busts (Michael Olowokandi, Kwame Brown, Andrea Bargnani, Andrew Bogut, Joe Smith, Derrick Coleman and Pervis Ellison).
So the top pick is almost as much about generating excitement. The Heat might luck out and draft a Chris Paul or Al Horford if it fails to land the No. 1 pick, but try persuading the fan base to buy tickets in June when the Heat is selling Jerryd Bayless or Brook Lopez.
But with the No. 1 pick and the promise of Derrick Rose or Michael Beasley? Fans will be guessing the Heat's 2009 playoff slogan as they wait in line for season tickets.
JUST FLIP A COIN
There is only a 25 percent chance of that happening for the Heat. There is just a 46.5 percent chance the Heat gets one of the top two picks.
That is worse than a coin flip's chance of ever seeing Rose or Beasley in a Heat uniform.
Those are better odds than any other team has, but they are not enough.
You have a better chance of winning six figures on Deal or No Deal than the Heat does to land No. 1.
Only twice since the 1994 lottery rule change has the team with the best odds taken the top pick (Cleveland in 2003 and Orlando in 2004).
And even though the chances are thin, the Warriors -- who would have been the fourth seed in the playoffs had they played in the Eastern Conference -- can win the top prize.
Perhaps even worse, the Portland Trail Blazers -- a .500 team this season with last year's No. 1 pick, Greg Oden, missing the entire season -- have a chance at repeating as Team Triumph in the lottery.
It probably won't happen, with both teams having less than a 1 percent chance at it, but as any regular poker player knows, eventually even the most unlikely of outcomes will occur.
Joel Litvin, the NBA's president of basketball operations, said he hopes even that wouldn't induce the league to adjust the lottery system.
''I would hope that we didn't respond to a single event,'' Litvin said. ``At some point, you're going to have an extreme long shot win the lottery. It would be a knee-jerk reaction, and not well thought out.''
Yet, it was that very circumstance that caused the league to adjust its lottery after 1993, when the longest of long shots, the Orlando Magic, won the No. 1 pick for the second year in a row.
THE NHL MODEL
Before it happens again, then, the league might want to consider shifting to a lottery system more like the NHL's, in which only the bottom five teams are in contention for the No. 1 pick, and teams can drop no further than one spot from their projected finish.
But then that blasted Houston Rockets theory comes up again.
''Would a team lose games intentionally if it knew it was guaranteed no worse than the second pick?'' Litvin said.
BALANCE, PLEASE
Maybe, but who can say for sure? Even the current system isn't keeping people from accusing the Heat of tanking this past season or the Celtics from doing so last season. It is a perception game, really, when the more important issue is creating a competitive balance that can only help the league.
Heat general manager Randy Pfund was on the competition committee that discussed potential changes.
''We really couldn't come up with anything that was significantly better or addressed all the issues that people had on both sides of the table,'' Pfund said.
``We'll probably go back and wrestle with it again. But it's a system we have in place. You have to get a little bit lucky in this business.''
Actually, the Heat needs to be a lot lucky May 20. One-in-four isn't good odds.
And yet, the success of an entire party depends on it.
Maybe even the immediate success of the franchise throwing the bash.
BIGGEST LOSERS IN DRAFT LOTTERY
Some of the more unfortunate lottery participants since the inception of the current lottery system in 1994:
Boston: In 1997, the Celtics appeared poised to draft Tim Duncan, with a 28 percent shot
at No. 1. Instead, the Spurs got Duncan, and Boston was stuck with the No. 3 pick and
Chauncey Billups. Last year, the Celtics had the NBA's second-worst record but fell three
spots to the No. 5 pick, missing out on Greg Oden or Kevin Durant.
Memphis/Vancouver: The Grizzlies had the No. 2 pick in 1999, only to be forced to trade
an unhappy Steve Francis to the Rockets for very little. In 2003, Memphis landed the No. 2
pick, which could have meant Carmelo Anthony, but because of an old trade, that pick went
to the Pistons. And last year the Grizzlies had the best odds to land No. 1, only to fall
to No. 4, where they took Mike Conley Jr.
Golden State: The Warriors had the best chance to land a franchise center, Yao Ming, in
2002. Instead, Houston and Chicago leapfrogged them, leaving the Warriors with Mike
Dunleavy Jr.
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