| |
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
Looks like Bobby has seen the light.
|
|
|
Reputation:76
Level:Pro
Since:Oct 2, 2007
|
|
Yeah and we had a good first inning when Yunel set the table.. unfortunately we didnt do anything else the rest of the game
|
|
|
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 19, 2008
|
|
I love Kelly in the 7 hole. I've been calling for it for a while. I would have flip flopped Kotsay and Escobar in the 1 and 2 holes though. I just Yunel is a perfect #2 guy.
|
|
|
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007
|
R/G with Kelly leading off: 4.92
R/G without Kelly at leadoff: 4.70
Asuited is very happy with the decision to score fewer runs. Asuited is fed up with all this offense!
|
|
|
Reputation:98
Level:Superstar
Since:Mar 19, 2008
|
R/G with Kelly leading off: 4.92
R/G without Kelly at leadoff: 4.70
While I'm sure these stats are correct, I don't think you can attribute this to Kelly Johnson hitting lead-off. His OBP is only .333 and that is including a 2 for 4 game yesterday in the 7 hole. Plus he's only scored 19 runs on the year. Not exactly prime lead-off guy numbers.
|
|
|
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007
|
But when I wanted to talk about the stats that favored him being in the leadoff role, no one wanted to talk about stats. They wanted to talk about foot speed (?) and bunting and a bunch of other stuff that's not all that important to batting leadoff but is instead just stuff most famous leadoff hitters also do well.
Now that I try to deviate from stats and point to sheer results (offensive output), here come the stats.
If I can make a comment on the stats you just mentioned, I will.
OBP has two main components, quite obviously: hit rate and walk rate. By hit rate I obviously mean batting average. By breaking down these components and comparing them to what is known about each component, you can discern if:
1. Kelly Johnson's .375 obp last season was a fluke
2. Kelly Johnson's .333 obp this season is a fluke
3. Kelly Johnson's .333 obp this season represents a dropoff in skill level.
I think we can agree that his .375 last season was certainly helpful in the leadoff role. He was constantly on base for Chipper and whoever was batting cleanup. That's a great situation to be in. In baseball, though, there are skill declines here and cases of bad luck there. On the surface they look the same. At age 32, Mark Langston was essentially done as an effective starter. At the same age, Roger Clemens, a similar pitcher, looked equally done. One bounced back and the other didn't. That's why you can't automatically label Kelly as declining or a victim of bad luck without really looking at it closely.
Like I said, there are two main components of obp: hit rate and walk rate. Walk rate is easy to look at, because that's always in the hitter's hands. Major league pitchers aren't walking batters less or more from year to year, so this is really in Kelly's hands. Unfortunately, KJ is walking less than last year. This is something to genuinely worry about. His walk rate, usually around 12-13%, is this year at 9%. That's bothersome and it indicates KJ is pressing at the plate, swinging at too many pitches. This is also evidenced by his pitches per PA count. Last year he saw 4.12 pitches per plate appearance. That's very selective (ml hitters average 3.8). This year he's below the 3.8 average at 3.76. While he is seeing more strikes than he did last year, it's not so much more that there's a huge problem. He's having a problem after he's getting those strikes, though. He's working 3-0 and 2-0 counts just as much as he did last year. Last year, though, he saw 3 balls in 26% of his trips to the plate. That's pretty amazing. This year that number's down to 19%. Perhaps he has tinkered with his approach, or maybe TP has, but Johnson needs to get his patience back to where it was last year to get that walk rate back up into the 12-13% zone.
Now, hit rate, or batting average. Batting average is affected by many things, like defense, luck, randomness, ballpark, etc. We know there are two facets of batting average, though, that are completely in Kelly's control: home runs and strikeouts. If he jacks one out, there's no luck of defensive positioning or risk of a great play to get him out, provided he hits it deep enough. If he strikes out, he's got no one to blame but himself. His home run frequency is oh so slightly up this year, and he's even hitting fewer fly balls. That's a good sign. The strikeout rate is down this year, from 19% to 16%, another good sign.
Everything else is not exactly in his control. Greg Maddux used to talk extensively about this, and he's really the first person I learned this from. Maddux would sometimes be surprised by the results of games, in that days when he had weak stuff he'd throw a shutout while days with great stuff he'd get shelled. When he had the great stuff but still gave up numerous runs, he'd say "they just kept dropping 'em in." On other days, he'd have better luck, but the key here is understanding that randomness and luck plays a major part. Another near-proof of this randomness is the wild fluctuations of the statistic that measure it - batting average on balls in play (essentially batting average that excludes home runs and strikeouts). This stat, babip, has no rhyme or reason. It's just random. Some really unique players it treats nicely (ichiro) and some unique players it treats poorly (I don't have an example off the top of my head but if you need one I can definitely find one). I wouldn't consider Johnson that unique of a player. Maddux is a really good example of how babip can alter stats, if you want to check it out. I'll let you do it on your own if you want, but look at Maddux in 1998, 1999, and 2000. 1999 stands out with era and hits allowed, but everything else is in line with what he was doing every year. Maddux didn't change his approach any. He didn't change his habits. A change in his game isn't what caused him to get worse in '99 or better in '00. He called it luck back in the day, so that's what I call it now.
Using some research we can make a guess as to what KJ's babip should be. Last year his babip was .330, higher than expected, so that .276 average was probably a little higher than it should've been.
This year his expected babip is .291 and his real babip is .302. That means he's even getting a little lucky on his swings.
So it boils down to one of two things:
#1. Kelly Johnson is pressing and needs to work on something, most likely his pitch selection
#2. Kelly Johnson's had a slump that so severely impacted his stats that at this point in the season, it's still too early to rely on the season data as truly indicative of what he can do, as the slump will still constitute a large chunk of his season to date.
There's no way to know whether it's one or the other. You're going with #1. I'm gonna go with #2, because I'm an optimist and because he's entering his prime, so the odds are certainly in his favor. With guys his age and his experience level, it's more likely to be #2 than #1.
But that's not to say it can't be #1.
There's a whole 'nother matter of comparing him to the other options at leadoff, though, and that's still the bulk of my reasoning that we should leave him there. There's just not anyone else better suited for the leadoff role.
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
R/G with Kelly leading off: 4.92
R/G without Kelly at leadoff: 4.70
Asuited is very happy with the decision to score fewer runs. Asuited is fed up with all this offense!
Oh come on, thats just a small sample size.
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
Here is what I got. I found 4 full games that Kelly wasn't leadoff. If there is another, feel free to correct me.
Kellys season numbers- 268 avg 333 obp .39 BB per game .57 runs per game
Others hitting leadoff- &nbs p;250 avg 375 opb .5 BB per game 1.25 runs per game
Danger, if any of this is inaccurate, feel free to correct it. Otherwise, which of the above numbers would you take?
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
Asuited is very happy with the decision to score fewer runs. Asuited is fed up with all this offense!
Apparently Bobby is too.
|
|
|
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007
|
|
There have been 10 games led off by players not named Kelly Johnson. Not sure why you're not counting his days off since you're just looking at the leadoff position.
|
|
|
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Oct 25, 2007
|
Apparently Bobby is too.
And you would never assume Bobby Cox is making a mistake. That'd be pretty hypocritical, wouldn't it?
I eagerly await your reply, which will naturally be broken up into 17 different posts.
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
Apparently Bobby is too.
Yeah, sorry about that. I just had thoughts popping into my head after having already sent a post. I'll try to do better next time.
Hypocritical? If you want to look at it that way, but it would also apply to you by thinking he is making a mistake.
And you would never assume Bobby Cox is making a mistake. That'd be pretty hypocritical, wouldn't it?
I eagerly await your reply, which will naturally be broken up into 17 different posts.
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Jan 29, 2008
|
|
Hypocritical? If you want to look at it that way, but it would also apply to you by thinking he is making a mistake. I'm not sure you know the meaning of hypocritical. Hypocritical(linked to a dictionary definition of hypocritcal) essentially means to contradict yourself. Danger thought Bobby was doing the right thing by leaving KJ in the leadoff spot, now he thinks Bobby is doing the wrong thing by taking KJ out of the lead off spot. No change in position, ergo, it's not hypocritical. In the thread Danger linked, you said Bobby was wrong, and in this thread, you used Bobby's position in an attempt to prove your point. That's the hypocrisy. I would say it is a slighty boderline case, but it is being hypocritical.
|
|
|
Reputation:99
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 9, 2007
|
|
I don't mind the move so much because Kelly Johnson is struggling offensively, but I don't like Kotsay in the two hole personally. I would rather have Kotsay driving in runs later in the order. I know it's difficult to place him in the lineup right now, but I would prefer Kotsay in a position to drive in runs, and if that happens to be 7th behind Francoeur, so be it. I wouldn't mind seeing Escobar leadoff, with Johnson or Blanco batting second. Again, this is just me, I'm not Bobby Cox, who is trying to produce runs with an lineup that hasn't been doing so well. I don't mind dropping Johnson in the order, but I don't like Kotsay batting second.
|
|
|
Reputation:96
Level:Superstar
Since:Feb 6, 2008
|
|
Hypocritical? If you want to look at it that way, but it would also apply to you by thinking he is making a mistake.
I'm not sure you know the meaning of hypocritical. Hypocritical(linked to a dictionary definition of hypocritcal) essentially means to contradict yourself. Danger thought Bobby was doing the right thing by leaving KJ in the leadoff spot, now he think | |
