I predicted before the season started that Brain Brohm would be the number one overall pick in the 2008 draft. I watched Matt Ryan gain a lot a confidence this season and drastically increase his stock heading into the draft, but I have to agree with Prisco. Brohm deserves to be the first quarterback taken in the draft, which should be third to the Flacons. Who do you think should be the first quarterback drafted in 2008?
Matt Ryan will go first, to the Atlanta Falcons. Michael Vick left a bad taste in everyone's mouth and they need to reface the franchise.
Brian Brohm will go in the first round, to the Batlimore Ravens or the Minnesota Vikings. Both need an answer and Ravens D only has one or two more years left. The Vikings have a young core and Tavaris Jackson showed me nothing last year. Count on it.
Colt Brennan will go the Seahawks who need to develop a young QB who would work well in the West Coast offense. Sorry Matt Hasselbeck, you're getting old and Seneca Wallace is a slot receiver waiting to happen.
A GOOD POINT??? Basically what he is saying is that because Brohm has better stats than Ryan does, he's the better QB. Well if that is the rubric we are grading QBs on, shouldn't we be saying that Colt Brennan is the BEST QB out there?
Here are the bottom lines:
1) Colt Brennan throws the ball about 70-80% of the time in a game, so it's not really that hard to continually throw for 400-500+ yards a game. Add this to the fact that Hawaii DOESN'T PLAY ANYBODY and you have a very overrated QB. Brennan will go 3rd-7th rounds.
2) Brian Brohm had better stats because of 2 reasons. First, he was surrounded by more talent than either Ryan or Brennan. He had the benefit of an outstanding running game, neither of which Ryan or Brennan had. Second, HE PLAYED IN THE BIG EAST. There is a reason the final score of every game is 55-52. THERE IS NO DEFENSE!! Depending on where Ryan is taken, Brohm will be taken. Brohm will be drafted somewhere in the first round. There are about 7 teams that are possibly looking for a QB (Falcons, Chiefs, Jets, Ravens, Panthers, Bears, Lions).
3) Matt Ryan did the most with the least amount of talent around him. His receiving core is far from talented, and he has never had a sustained running game to take the load off of him. And while the ACC is not the greatest league, the defenses are much tougher than in the Big East and the WAC. Ryan will be the first QB drafted. He'll probably go to the Falcons, but I personally think that Atlanta needs to build up before taking a QB. The same 7 teams mentioned above are the teams Ryan has a chance of ending up with.
This is the fail safe cop-out argument. OF COURSE they played with different personnel, coaches, schedules, etc. But let’s look at a common opponent this past year. BC played NC State at home and won 37-17. Ryan went 15/34, 142 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT.UofL won 29-10 AT NC State with Brohm going 20/33, 251, 1 TD and 1 INT, WITHOUT Harry Douglas. So Brohm played the same team and had more completions in less attempts for 100+ more yards and more average WITHOUT his undisputed #1 WR. I let those facts speak for themselves.
On top of that, the most telling stat is PASSING EFFICIENCY. Ryan was NOT CLOSE to Brohm in passing efficiency. In 2007 Ryan was number SIXTY-ONE in passing efficiency. Not 20<sup> th</sup> , 30<sup> th</sup> or 40<sup> th</sup> , but behind SIXTY other QBs, including such prospects as Aaron Opelt of Toledo, Kyle Israel of Central Florida, and Patrick Pinckney of East Carolina. 2006 was actually a better year for Ryan as he was #50 in passing efficiency. Brohm was 8<sup> th</sup> in 2007 and 9<sup> th</sup> in 2006.
I love Harry Douglas, but he was by far Louisville’s best WR this year and to think that he alone accounted for the discrepancy between Brohm and Ryan is ludicrous. In addition, HD was injured and missed all or parts of 3 or 4 games. Brohm’s #2 target, Mario Urrutia was injured for the better part of the year as well. And do WRs account for all those INTs by Ryan? Don’t blame Ryan’s teammates for him throwing to the wrong team.
Brohm’s yards and TDs and completion % were all up as a senior and his 3-to-1 TD to INT ration remained steady despite playing for a new HC and OC. (A more detailed look at Brohm’s stats follows below.) Ryan, on the other hand, ONLY improved in yards. He chucked it more but his other stats pretty much remained the same or dropped somewhat from his SO to JR to SR years. His TD to INT ratio has also remained steady at 1.5-to-1, half as good as Brohm’s.
The thought that Brohm is a “system QB” whose best years were under Petrino could not be more WRONG and just plain ignorant to the facts. In 2005, under Petrino, Brohm was #2 in passing efficiency, throwing for 2800+, 19TDs, 5 INTs and 68.8%. In 2006, again under Petrino, Brohm was #9 in passing efficiency, throwing for 3,000+, 16TDs, 5 INTs and 63.6%. In 2007, with a new HC and OC, Brohm was #8 in passing efficiency with 4,000+ yards, 36 TDs, 12 INTs and 65% completion percentage. It’s hard to call him a “system QB” when he excelled in TWO systems in college and his numbers improved under a brand new system.
I’ve pretty much covered this above, but the "Louisville had more talent" argument is just a fabricated excuse and nothing more. BC’s recruiting classes are rated higher than Louisville’s year-in and year-out. Brohm also played without his top 2 WRs at 100% for much of this past year. And as I’ve stated other places, Brohm has put up consistent numbers with different coaches, systems and players.
Although Ryan and Brohm are the top choices I'd rather see the Ravens draft Joe Flacco of Delaware State. The kid has a strong accurate arm and can read the Defense enough right now. He reminds me of Ben Rothlesberger ( hope I didn't misspell Ben's name) we could then add a CB, WR, OT.
