what i expect from a pitching staff....

i have made posts in regaurds to what i expected out of the Cubs starters and want to clarify on how i figure a starters win total.. for example i mentioned marquis winning 15 games as a 5th starter is acceptable to me.. i know you dont get many if at all 15 wins from a 5th starter, i should have clarified that i meant 15 wins out of that 5th spot team wise would be acceptable. not the actual 5th starter getting 15 wins.. 

  i should have have clarified it by starts, not necessaruly the staring pitchers W but the team wins in their starts and heres how i break it down..   i know certain rotation spots get skipped during the year for rainouts and days off. so the no.1 and/ or 2 starter may get extra starts.  but heres how i expect each starters spot wins total should be team wise..

no.1 spot.. 33 starts- the ace pitcher of a staff should have at least 23-25 team wins..

no.2 spot.. 33 starts- the teams second best starter should post 20-22 team wins..

no.3 spot.. 32 starts- the teams third guy should be above average and post 18-20 team wins.

no.4 spot..32 starts- the teams 4th guy should be above the .500 mark and post at least  17-19 team wins..

no.5 spot..32 starts- this guy on a good offensive team should at the very least be able to have half of his starts won and should post at least 15-17 team wins..

so as you see anywhere from 93-103 wins is what i expect from a very good team to a great team..

so as i look at this cubs starting rotation as of now i see zambrano as the no.1 , lilly is the no.2, dempster is no.3, marquis is no.4, and as of now unknown is no.5..

as of now i see zambrano and lilly (as of late) are able to help their team win between 43-47 games in their 66 starts..

dempster is on his way to help his team post between 18-20 wins in his 32 starts..

marquis as of now has a  3-3  team record in his 6 starts, thanks mainly to the offense.. can we trust that he will pick up his game and help his team win at least 14 of his final 26 starts.. it doesnt seem like much but if he continues to struggle to go 5 or 6 thats asking alot out of the bullpen to hold the load for him every time out and obviously the offense would need to carry him through alot if he cant make it 6 innings..

the 5th slot is unknown right now.. now that hill is in the minors and leiber got tattooed his only start we may see a revolving door until someone takes that spot over..

so, i hope this clarifies and help you all understand what i expect out of my starters and why i get a bit aggravated..    this offense will carry this team in the long run, i just hope when they ggo into a funk that we have the right guys on the mound to carry them for awhile til they get the bats going again..

The flaw I perceive in your post, Bearsz, is that whether it is a personal win or a team win, it does not account for the offense scoring runs.   Any starter can give you a quality start and yet, the opposing pitcher shuts down your hitters.  Each year, you see a pitcher who has thrown 220 innings, has a respectable ERA and WHIP, yet his record does not reflect his effectiveness, neither will his contribution to team wins.  Aaron Harang's current record despite his effectiveness is a current example.

I view an effective staff through their ERA , Innings pitched, and overall WHIP.  When combined with an average to above average offense, that usually translates to a winning record for that team. 

Have you looked at Toronto's staff?????

Nothin against ya bearz BUT why does everyone on these posts keep leaving out Rich Hill?!?!?!  The guy gets sent down to work it out & it is like we burried him or somethin...

Between Z, Dempster, Lilly & Hill we got ourselves a solid if not good front line. with Marquis, Leber, Marshall &/or whomever bringing up the rear this team will be fine.  Ninety wins is still very much a reality.

Marshall is currently getting stretched out in iowa and I expect to see Rich Hill back. He is too talented to not figure it out. when that happens, lieber will go back to the pen and marquis may be traded.

Just a thought

NYN its team wins not personal wins.. out of a combined 64 starts id expect at least 32 wins which is .500 from the 4th and 5th starter combined in their starts.. i said a good team should win 32 games and a great team in those slots whould win 36 games.. which combined with the other 3 slots should win between 93-103 games..

playoff teams NYN will pull out 32 - 36 wins in their 4th and 5th slot of the rotation out of 64 starts, thats just .500 or a bit better..

Jazz..   i do agree that the offense, defense, and relief pitching are all a big part of achieveing a team win.. that is a big part of my expectation of wins per starting slots..

these are team wins not personal wins..  

Lily, as the only lefty in the rotation is the key.   As long as our top three (Zambrano, Dempster, and Lily)  keep pitching well, we should be fine. 

I personally like Lieber and Marshall in the 4/5  spots.  No, i'm not writing off Rich Hill, eventaully I am sure he will figure it out, but for now, Lieber has been pretty consistent.  Marshall did well in the 5 spot last year and gives us another lefty

27 wins between the 4 and 5 starter should be enough to do it

Geovanny Soto is the best Cubs Catcher since Gabby Hartnett