Livan Hernandez: A Walking Myth

He's been VERY mediocre this year. He's been pretty damn lucky, actually. His numbers SCREAM "I'm not for real!!!" and "I'm going to screw this team!!!"

Just consider all of this:

- Livan pitched pretty well in his first three starts, I'll give him that, but the man is extremely susceptible to the long ball, and he's starting to show it. He's given up nine homers in his last six starts and remember: He's NUMBER TWO in HR's allowed over the past three years (2005-2007) with 29 given up per season.

- His WHIP (Walks + Hits Allowed/Innings Pitched) is pretty much atrocious. His 1.440 will haunt him soon enough. Explosions are very likely with this guy on the mound because he gives up numerous baserunners.

- He doesn't strike people out, which makes the previous stat even more scary... he has to rely on batted balls (that can, and will, find holes) to get people out. He's got a K-Rate of 3.31 so far this year... among the worst in the major leagues.

- Last, he's not just getting "decent run support", he's getting an ABUNDANCE of run support. An amazing 6.31 runs per start! The Twins score 4.42 runs a game, so you know this isn't going to last. Just for kicks, here's the run support for the other Twins pitchers as of May 14:

Slowey: 3.00

Baker: 6.66 (yikes! Maybe that's why he's on the DL!)

Bonser: 3.10

Blackburn: 4.50

As you can see, the team is able to score sometimes, but it's also easy to see why a guy like Bonser (who has pitched better than Livan) has a 2-4 record.

My goal here isn't to crack on Livan, it's to keep everything in perspective. He's not doing any better than usual - he's just getting lucky, and we're benefitting from teams NOT getting timely hits. The trend of all these wins is likely to reverse, but he'll still have some OK games. I'm thinking 14-15 wins and a 4.54 ERA at the end of the year.

The points you have said are very true and he most likely wont continue his success at this pace but come on you cant say he hasnt impressed you so far.  If someone would have said on April 1 that on May 14 Livan would be 6-1 with and ERA under 4 and the Twins would be atop the division i would have asked what they were smoking and if they were going to share it.  WHIP and K ratio are kind of over rated what really matters is do you come out everyone 5th day and give your team a chance to win and the answer is YES for Livan. 

Its funny how after every start everyone projections for Livan keep rising.  At the start of the season if some said 14 W's for Livan with a ERA around 4.50 i would say thats a great season.  In 09 with those stats he would be getting a fat contract from another team. 

Hernandez is putting way too many people on base, and that was most of my main point.

Am I happy that the Twins are winning? Yes.

I'm talking about the prospects of the Twins CONTINUING to win.

With Livan Hernandez, I do not feel safe.

And Silva '07 was pretty good, actually (compared to '08 Livan).

Hernandez gives up a lot more homers than Silva.

You're right though - a 6-1 record was not expected.

Anyway, if we're arguing that Livan is a better value for his production, then you won't hear a peep from me. I'm just saying Silva is pitching better, and has been a better pitcher over the past 3 years.

I mean, the whole point was to help people see that W/L record is virtually meaningless, especially with a pitcher like Livan.

Good discussion though!

And yes, Livan's K totals have dropped dramatically the past two seasons, and with it has gone his effectiveness. I'll also agree that he's been known to give up a few extra baserunners too, but the one thing that I can't agree with is that he's "known" for being able to work out of jams. This is a guy who, over the past three years, has ranked #1 (or dead last... whatever. :) ) in earned runs among starters. He was #6 in '07, #7 in '06 and #8 in '05.

And to be honest, I'm not complaining at all. I'm just trying to get everyone on board with the fact that this streak of luck is going to come to an end. A 6-1 record might make some people think that he's "turned it around," when in fact he's the same guy he was before. I'm trying to help Twins fans by bringing stats to light that might otherwise be ignored!

By the way, I freaking love that we're winning and that he's 6-1. Just trying to be a realist.

I'm just wondering what are you looking for? Livan has exceeded expectations. If I were the Twins I would try and extend him for another couple of seasons. That last game against Boston was a gem. He got rocked early then kept his team in it for another 5 innings. Twins get the win. Livan isn't an overpowering pitcher, he needs to rely on junk and guile. He reminds me of Bert Blyeven (late career). His Whip was never that good (whatever it is) but he could get a win when you needed one.

14 or 15 wins; 4 or 5 more he is a Cy Young canidate. He isn't a replacement for Santana.

Let's start with CARPSHADE: Dude, I think you're misreading the posts in this thread. This isn't about expectations for Livan, this is about the fact that he's continually playing with fire (read:lots of hits/walks and few K's) and we're going to get burned very soon. I won't disagree that the team has played well in his outings, but he's one of the scarier pitchers in the league. I don't want him to struggle/fail, I just think it's inevitable. That Cy Young thing is laughable. Don't be such a homer/rube/naive fan.

If he can continue to work out of all these messes he creates, then maybe he gets extended, but I don't recommend it. Not with all this young pitching we can use. He'll just be blocking the Mulveys, Lirianos and others.

TACOBITE: When I said you were using the wrong stats, I wasn't referring to the accuracy, but the categories you deemed important. Things like Home Runs Allowed, K/9, WHIP, Batting Average Against and others are better ways to see how a pitcher is fairing against the competition. And by those measures, Silva is pitching better than Livan.

And you're right - it's not fair that a guy like Hernandez can pitch as poorly as he does, yet still gar