Here's my attempt at the upcoming season with the thinking behind the picks.
1. UNLV
Great blend of experience and new blood, perfectly complimenting the weakness's on a 27-8 team. A large infusion of depth has been added. Each starter will have a quality replacement behind them, pushing them to excell. Then, the Kruger factor. As the man from ESPN said, "Lon Kruger gets as much as any coach can from his players." Barring some big surprises or injuries, this team is now the undisputed favorite.
2. BYU
No new additions of note, and the loss of their big man. This would have been closer had Plaisted stayed, but without him BYU settles into second. In the BYU win over UNLV at Provo, Plaisted had 22 pts, 7 rebs, 2 steals, 1 block, 2 asts, and shot 6 for 8 (75%) of his free throws. He held Darger to 11 pts and 2 rebs, with Darger fouling out of the game guarding him. Against Hamga/Massamba, there is no center that BYU has that will be able to have a game line like that on the UNLV tandem. Defensive help goes from assisting Darger in the paint to the perimeter players, making things tougher on them. This changes this match-up in a major way.
3. SDSU
Aztecs return almost the entire squad. The biggest loss with be Kelvin Davis. However, they add very little via new talent. The biggest question here is the "Fisher Factor". Can Steve Fisher bring back Kyle Spain and develop a winning chemistry on this team? They have plenty of talent. Based on talent alone, one would think they would have competed for the MWC championship last season, not winding up with 8 conference losses. Wade, Spain, Amaroso, White & Williams are a stong unit. Can Fisher get them to get their act together?
4. Utah
Boylen had the Utes coming on at the end of the season. Progress should continue. I just don't think they have strengthened themselves enough across the board to make a serious run at the MWC Championship. They lost Bryant, and improved the most in their depth at center with a 4 star recruit.
5. UNM
Another wild card. Alford did a great job getting Giddens to buy in last year, and developed a nice team chemistry. If he can take a great recruiting class, mold them and re-build the chemistry, this team can jump up in the standings. I've got them at 5, but if Utah & SDSU disappoint, they can move up.
6. Wyoming
Here comes the lower tier. The Cowboys should be the best of the four team lower tier. Not much hope of them moving into the upper 5.
7. Air Force
The Falcons always manage to play tough defense, especially at Clune. Still, loosing Anderson is a big hit to this team.
8. TCU
Christian will need time to bring this team along. He's a good coach, that enherits a depleted team. They'll be in this bottom four for a few years to come.
9. CSU
This team has only 11 scholarships this year, and needs all the help it can get to rebuild. Another team that has a reservation in the bottom 4 for some years to come.
