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I disagree with the final conclusion that you are drawing - that it is impossible to win it all with this style of basketball. I agree that UCLA is in some ways a mirror of Bucky however just because they haven't won in the Final Four doesn't mean anything. I think that everyone gets wrapped up with absolutes. The swing offense can't win against talent...etc.
I think of two things with every game - matchups and chance. The fact is that every time that people go out to play a game there is some chance and luck involved. A bad bounce, a shot that just isn't falling for someone, a bad call, a rolled ankle of your starting point guard, the list goes on and on. I do believe that luck favors the well prepared. Knowing tendencies of the other team, spending time working on your shot, time running suicides to improve conditioning, etc - but that doesn't mean that there still isn't some chance involved.
The other factor is matchups. This is where your arguement has some merit. The swing offense as a system doesn't matchup particularly well against two types of teams - athletic run & gun styles if the pace becomes frenzied (see UNLV exit in the tournament last year) and teams that run solid offense and shoot the three well (see Davidson, Duke...actually all of this years losses).
With every game I like to think of the game in terms of a percentage taking into account both of these factors. For example, on a neutral court playing that Davidson game 100 times how often does Wisconsin win. I think that it probably comes out about 60-40 Badgers. If Wisconsin were to play Memphis I would say about 80-20 Tigers. For UCLA vs Memphis, I would say about 60-40 Tigers. Are there sure things in this world? Probably but they are games like my High School Basketball team against the Badgers. I would give that game to the Badgers 100 out of 100. But in NCAA Div I basketball there are very few of those matchups.
So could the Badgers win the whole thing? In my opinion yes but it would come down to having a good draw and getting the better bounces of the ball for six straight games. Would their chances improve with a different offense (or a tweaked swing)? Maybe but I do not think I am nearly smart enough to second guess Bo's system. I would prefer to think that Bo is always trying to come up with the game plan that will solve the matchup problems that they face.
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