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Riddle me this one. Completely OT!

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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
badgerdiver Reputation:98 Level:Superstar Since:Jan 12, 2008
	May 6, 2008 11:40 pm Score: 93
	This is a question of conditional probabilities. Whenever you deal with conditional probabilities its a good idea to define events. A_i = { car is behind door i } B_i = { car is not behind door i } basically what youre asking is what is greater: P{ A_1 \| B_3 } probability( car is behind door 1 given it is not behind door 3 ) P{ A_2 \| B_3 } probability( car is behind door 2 given it is not behind door 3 ) both of these equal 1/2 Inevitably someone will say when you pick door 1, you had a 1/3 chance of succeeding, but if you switch, you will have a 1/2 chance of succeeding. That changes when new information arrives though. 1/3 = P{ A_1 } < P{ A_1 \| B_3 } = P{ A_2 \| B_3 } = 1/2
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
Smokey Reputation:95 Level:Superstar Since:Nov 8, 2006
	May 7, 2008 2:47 am Score: 91
	Oh yah, and Badger DIver wins....a steaming pile. Please try again.
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
badgerdiver Reputation:98 Level:Superstar Since:Jan 12, 2008
	May 7, 2008 11:36 am Score: 94
	Smokey.. I take upper level statistics, and that is the right answer. If you know the car is not behind door 3, you know it is behind either door 1 or 2, those are the only two options, so each has a probability of 1/2 in succeeding.
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
CZIMMY07 Reputation:96 Level:Superstar Since:Sep 28, 2007
	May 7, 2008 11:53 am Score: 94
	badger, is there an answer to the two switch one? I knew what I put was not 100% certain, but I figured the chances of that strategy failing were astronomical.
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
CZIMMY07 Reputation:96 Level:Superstar Since:Sep 28, 2007
	May 7, 2008 11:56 am Score: 94
	I'd guess roughly around 1 in 24 ^12 chance in failing, but I took prob stat a LONG time ago and I only took entry level.
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
AC13 Reputation:97 Level:Superstar Since:Oct 5, 2006
	May 7, 2008 1:22 pm Score: 93
	Smokey, You always switch doors. The Monty Hall Paradox. For those who don't believe you can wikipedia it. The probability if you switch is 2/3. That was one of the first questions given to me by my Greek History Professor...proving to us that we shouldnt jump to conclusions.
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Riddle me this one. Completely OT! -
Smokey Reputation:95 Level:Superstar Since:Nov 8, 2006
	May 7, 2008 2:46 pm Score: 82
	Congrats AC13!!!
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