45 Expert Picks

We told you yesterday that Paredes is a Yankee killer and in great run-producing form and he cashed for us with a two RBI knock (and had a few other opportunities as well). We like the Rays work against Nestor Cortes and Paredes loves the Bronx and he has 2 HR in 12 ABs vs him. Cortes's act is running a little thin and his antics aren't so cute with all the hard contact against him. I expect Rays to get to him early today, knowing he's vulnerable.

Nestor Cortes was a thing for a year or so, but he's been nothing special since and Diaz tends to hit him hard. Rays having better at bats lately though this guy is in quite a funk. I like him to breakout today. Diaz has 24 ABs vs Cortes with 8 hits, an OPS over 1000 and a couple of homers. All the delays and affectations don't do much for the junk baller when he faces this professional hitter and I like the Rays to flush a tough loss Fri and battle hard to try to tie this series today

Kutter Crawford has been an absolute revelation for the BoSox so far (though I would say throwing nothing but junk is gonna mess his elbow up), but this switch hitter is in his head. Reynolds is scuffling for sure but is 3-for-3 with 2 HRs career vs this starter. I do think Crawford will regress and his control has started to waver a little but in recent starts. I also don't think a whole lot of the Sox pen, their defense stinks (which could help us with a generous IF hit not ruled an error) and get ready to start fading that team as I expect them to plummet.

I don't do a lot of wagering on double headers, but this isn't your average DH, either. The Marlins are so bad, and we are getting them after their best starter went in Game 1, who is struggling himself, and with their brutal pen even more compromised. Cubs have better depth and talent, I love the way their Game 2 starter is pitching and they get to face a kid making his MLB debut who Miami has to be a little careful with. Rough time to ask for 18 innings (at least) out of Marlins on the road. At least one of these games will be a total blowout and I'll go with the second

Friday, we paid the juice and took the Phillies to win on the moneyline. They won 7-0. Saturday’s moneyline has more juice than Tropicana, so we’ll play this instead. The Phillies will start their ace Zack Wheeler, who has a 1.04 WHIP and 30 strikeouts over 24 innings. The White Sox will start Michael Soroka, who has a 1.76 WHIP and has given up at least four runs in three of his four outings. The Phillies should win this in convincing fashion.

Juan Soto is in the midst of a strong first season with the Yankees, hitting .347/.468/.600 in 20 games. He's had 2+ bases 10 times, including in four of his last six, with home runs in two straight, so he's swinging a hot bat. He's had a lot of success against Eflin in his career mostly from his Nationals days, hitting 11 for 25 with four extra-base hits. Eflin has been a mixed back to start the year, with a 20:2 K:BB ratio but also a 4.63 ERA as he's surrendered nine extra-base hits, including four home runs. I'm surprised this number is so juiced to the Under in this matchup.

Kutter Crawford has been nearly flawless through four starts allowing a single earned run and possessing a spectacular ERA of 0.42. Crawford has eclipsed this line in three of his four starts, however I would argue he is running very hot on strikeouts and is due for some regression. If we look at his SwStr% and Contact% it would indicate this as well. Pittsburgh is more of a neutral matchup from a strikeout perspective but everything I value points to the under here.

Have to say that I'm getting a tad excited about the Cubs this year. Beating Dodgers or Braves? Doubtful but think they get to postseason. Of course, when the Marlins are in Wrigley I flash back to Bartman. And while I literally vomited at the time (true story), I totally would have tried to catch the ball too. I think. Do like to imagine I knew the situation and would have backed off, but Wrigley in late summer and not beered up? Come on. Will tell you one thing: I AM NOT wearing headphones. Clown. I shouldn't have to even explain this pick. The only Marlin who would start for the Cubs is Luis Arraez.

This is a low line for Bailey Ober who has struggled during his first three starts, however I like his chances of putting together a quality outing against a Detroit team that is 26th in OPS against opposing right handed pitching. Last season Ober eclipsed this line in 15/26 starts. My buddy and excellent MLB expert A-Mags turned me on to this play.

I lived in Tampa for a decade-plus so while I wouldn't say "expert" on the Rays I follow them simply as it was my job to do so. They are just not that good in 2024. At some point, playing in a mausoleum was gonna hurt them. This is that year. (Yes I am aware a road game but point stands.) Consider a Juan Soto prop. His career splits vs. TB starter Zach Eflin are Buttermaker-esque.

Can't say I like fading Orioles ace Corbin Burnes ... although technically I am not. Definitely don't like fading Royals ace Cole Ragans, either. We meet in the middle. Ragans will not be a home dog often so let's take the gift.

Peculiar things can happen in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs, where home-ice edge often doesn't sustain. Perhaps Carolina will be the exception, but the Islanders come in looking very dangerous, having surged down the stretch to even get playoff-eligible by winning eight of their last nine, with Semyon Varmalov (8-1-1 his last ten starts) especially hot in goal. Thus, NY continues to ascend for HC Patrick Roy, who took over midstream from Lane Lambert. This series was no picnic a season ago for the Canes, who were pushed to six games in the first round by this same underdog, and doubt it gets any easier here. Play Islanders on Money Line

There is a reason Denver has beaten the Lake Show eight straight times...the matchups simply don't work for LA. Mostly because Nikola Jokic and his ability to work from the high post removes some of the effectiveness Anthony Davis might have on the stop end closer to the bucket. Jokic terrorizes the Lakers, and the Nuggets are one of the few teams that can match on LeBron, as Aaron Gordon is big enough and long enough to not get overwhelmed. LA's supporting cast must come up big to avoid the same fate as last season when the Nuggets swept in the West finals. Play Nuggets

Soon we might have to be laying 2.5 runs on the Run Line in games involving the Chisox, who were just blanked for the seventh time (sheesh!) in their first nineteen games (double sheesh!) last night by the Phils. Having bunched more than half of their runs (19) in three games, it is forcing starting pitchers to toss shutouts to even have a chance; Michael Soroka, on the mound Saturday and with a 6.98 ERA, appears unlikely to clear that high bar. Zack Wheeler is overdue for this first win of the year on the Phils side, and if this series is the mismatch we believe it to be, Wheeler won't get a better chance than tonight. Play Phillies on Run Line

Bailey Ober went six innings last weekend against this Tigers lineup and even though I don't love back to back matchups for pitchers, we're getting this line at 15.5 again and I think it should be at 16.5... Ober was efficient in that last start, needing 84 pitches to complete six innings while allowing just three hits. If not for a bad (and abbreviated) first start, he likely would have pitched into the 6th inning in his second start too, when he threw 68 pitches in five innings while allowing three hits. The Twins used four bullpen arms to back up Joe Ryan yesterday, and despite some trouble with runs, Ryan still was allowed to pitch into the 6th inning.