61 Expert Picks
A few experts are playing Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases props tonight because he's 4-for-6 with a triple and homer career off Angels starter Griffin Canning -- and that makes total sense, but Henderson doesn't have to get an official total base and can still come around to score. Or just go yard in the top of the first and make us all happy.
Should Texas be a home dog here? The Mariners have the better pitcher, I suppose, in Logan Gilbert over Dane Dunning, but the lineups are not close. No. 1 Texas catcher Jonah Heim is back from the bereavement list. And Dunning’s lifetime .667 win percentage (16-8) at Globe Life Field is the highest ever by a Rangers starting pitcher in Arlington (minimum 40 starts at home).
I'm not sure a change of venue to Orlando is going to alter the landscape of what's going on on the boards in this series. Allen is grabbing 20 a game and making it look easy. Carter Jr is no threat to him. They don't have athletic bigs who can challenge him enough. Mobley may cut into the pie a little bit more than he did in the first two games, but I project Allen still going over 15 again. Game will be close with Cavs on the road, extra day off will help Allen after all the work he did rebounding in the first two games. We are seeing dudes grabbing 20 a game every night. Love this match-up for him.
The Cards have a little momentum after last night's walk-off win (to snap a four-game skid) over the Diamondbacks, who are sitting reigning NL Rookie of the Year Corbin Carroll today. He's not hitting much yet but still can cause havoc on the basepaths so it's definitely a good thing for St. Louis. Arizona's top rookie this year, shortstop Blaze Alexander (now that's a name), is out a second straight game. Cards pitcher Steven Matz is meh but has thrown five shutout innings in his lone home outing thus far.
I thought before the playoffs began the Mavs could come out of the West and might sweep the Clippers, especially with Kawhi ailing. I'm not going to lose faith after one terrible outing. Too much talent and playoff experience here for them to go down easy. Luka and Co will show their mettle tonight and find a way to win this game. Mavs were a covering machine for over a month, that hasn't just disappeared with a few days off and one bad game
DAL was rusty last time out and had some issues, but man, this offense was humming the final six weeks of the season and the Clippers are not elite defensively. Yeah they get more tuned in during the playoffs but Mavs averaged 116/G after ASG, LAC allowed 112/G and Dallas averaged 114/G vs LAC in the regular season. If Luka and Kyrie get their 35-40 each, we don't need much else from the supporting cast to get us over this total. Run of unders thus far has these numbers getting pretty low. I project the Mavs offense to bounce back here
This is simply too big of a line for Ben Lively who will be making his second start of the season. Lively's first start came against this same Boston lineup where he rung up seven strikeouts, however I think he will have a more difficult time this second go around. Lively stayed under this line in 8/12 starts last season and Boston has been tough on opposing righties. Six Ks is a big ask for Lively, especially facing the same lineup in back to back starts.
Gunnar Henderson has been swinging a hot bat of late with six multihit games in his last eight and five extra-base hits in that stretch. He also homered against Tuesday starter Griffin Canning as part of a 2-for-3 day at the end of March and tripled against Canning as part of another 2-for-3 day in the only meeting between the two last year. Canning hasn't been much better against the rest of MLB this year with a 8.05 ERA and 11 extra-base hits allowed in four starts, and lefties have 1.096 OPS against the Angels starter this year. I expect another big game from Henderson in this one.
Michael King is coming off a gem in Milwaukee where he struck out 10 batters in seven innings to push his K/9 rate near 10, which is about where it sits for the Rockies offense as a whole. King also had three starts with at least eight Ks in his last five starts with the Yankees last year after getting stretched out. In theory Coors Field is dangerous for opposing pitchers, but the Rockies have scored just five runs in four games since returning from their most recent road trip. Even with heavy juice, I like playing King to reach the six-K threshold in this matchup.
Save for a brief 2:06 stretch of madness in the second period of Game One when conceding an astounding three goals, Washington looked a proper match for the Rangers. Charlie Lingdren also stabilized in the Caps' goal after that blitz, resembling the goalie that had saved 130 of the past 137 shots he faced entering this series. The script could totally flip in Game Two if Washington can forge a lead, which it is very capable with Alex Ovechkin still in the fold. We maintain this series won't be a cakewalk for the Rangers and Peter Laviolette against his old team, and expect tight going tonight and throughout the duration of this matchup. Play Caps on Puck Line
The Rays have been bouncing back-and-forth this season and have yet to lose three in a row, a streak that should remain in tact after tonight at the Trop. Tampa Bay won't be facing Detroit ace Tarik Skubal, who handcuffed the Rays last night; instead, it's Kenta Maeda, who has been drilled in two of his four starts, including last Thursday vs. Texas when unable to escape the 3rd inning. Allowing 7 homers in 17 1/3 IP highlights Tiger concerns about Maeda. Meanwhile, ex-Dodger Ryan Pepiot has impressed on the mound for Tampa Bay, especially last Thursday when allowing just one run and three hits across 6 IP in a win over the Angels. Play Rays on Run Line
Perhaps Rick Carlisle will want to add Doctor Phil to his coaching staff, as the Pacers continue to exhibit bipolar tendencies. Even during the course of a single game, as Indy couldn't have played a worse first half in Sunday's Game One at Milwaukee before making a mild comeback in the second half. Back-and-forth has been the pattern for Indiana, as was success vs the Bucks, whom the Pacers beat 4 of 5 during the regular season. Expect Pascal Siakam (36 points on Sunday) to get more help in Game Two, and adjustments limited the damage caused by the Bucks' Dame Lillard after he scored 35 in the first half. Giannis remains doubtful, and unlikely Milwaukee repeats its sizzling first half from Sunday. Play Pacers
Logan Gilbert has enjoyed an excellent start to the season, allowing only one earned run in three of his four starts while posting a 29:4 K:BB ratio on the year. He's had success against the Rangers in his career, including holding them to two earned runs in each of his three starts facing them last year. Even though the Rangers have a good offense, the player with the most success against Gilbert in his career is Corey Seager, who has not gotten out to a good start so far. I think the juice on this line should be on the Under, not the Over.
Cal Raleigh is batting .313 with two home runs in 16 career at-bats against Dunning. Dunning's FIP is 6.18, xERA is 6.81, and his hard-hit rate is 51.7%, which ranks as the 6th worst among all starting pitchers with at least three starts according to Baseball Savant. This is not good in a hitters' park like Global Life Field. The Rangers' available bullpen has an ERA of 5.66. You can find +300 at most books!
Big news out of Vancouver that blindsided me (and I think most everyone else) or I would have had it in today's premium newsletter that recently went out for subscribers who have signed up: Canucks No. 1 netminder Thatcher Demko reportedly could miss the rest of the series vs. the Preds due to injury. Casey DeSmith had a very solid year as a backup but now we have to back Nashville, which largely dominated the first two periods of Game 1 despite the 4-2 loss. DeSmith has just one game of playoff experience in his career. Simply can't turn down +1.5 in a playoff game even at this price.