Draft prep: Third-year starting pitchers

Note: This is Part II of our series on Draft Day sleepers and breakouts. Part I was 27-year-olds.

Pitchers can reach their physical peak at 27, too, but pitching is more art than skill and it isn't only about physical prowess. It also takes a conditioning process that requires you to build up to the 200-inning, 34-start grind.

So with that in mind, we have another way to outline potential breakouts at the riskiest position in Fantasy: Starting pitchers in their third year -- or more loosely interpreted, those with between 40 and 70 career starts -- are conditioned and ready to pop (in the good way, not the blown ligament way).

This year's crop is the best we have seen in years, mostly a result of a 2006 rookie class that was legendary.

To win your league, you want players who outproduce their draft position or auction price. Here is our top 10 "Third-year SPs" to target (with their age on opening day):

1. Jered Weaver | 25 | Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Among the 30 or so arms in this category, Weaver has the lowest career ERA at 3.33. He also has the second-best WHIP at 1.232, tied for third-most victories (24) and has the fewest losses (nine). His career .250 batting-average-against is nothing to sneeze at either.

Yeah, Weaver is a winner. And he has a great team in the Angels to get him run support and victories this year.

Unlike the next two elite arms on this list, he will be ranked out of the top 15 starting pitchers to target on Draft Day and won't be considered the ace of his own team. That would be John Lackey.

We like Weaver's potential to perform on the level of anyone in 2008.

2. Justin Verlander | 25 | Detroit Tigers

OK, we know what you're saying: Way to go out on a limb with this one. Well, you're right. Verlander is a clear Fantasy ace that might be among the top five at the position already. His 35 career victories are already 10 more than the next closest third-year starter, while his ERA (3.74) is fourth best.

But, until Johan Santana is traded to the Mets, Red Sox, Yankees, Angels or Dodgers, Verlander is the only pitcher we project to win 20 games in 2008 for a beefed-up Tigers team that figures to have him on cruise control for your Fantasy team.

The jump from 18 victories to 20 is a significant one -- one that can net him the Cy Young in his third year.

3. Cole Hamels | 24 | Philadelphia Phillies

You must be thoroughly annoyed now. We have yet to tell you something you don't already know. Hamels is a star for a great team, too.

His career 1.175 WHIP tops all third-year starters and his .237 BAA is good for fourth.

But, what you don't necessarily realize is Hamels, like Weaver above, has yet to break the 200-inning mark in the majors. Getting to that point should mean some big-time numbers across the board we haven't seen from him yet.

4. John Maine | 26 | New York Mets

A much-less obvious Fantasy ace, perhaps. Maine's career ERA (4.19) won't excite you, neither will his 1.287 WHIP.

And his post-break numbers in 2007 of 5-6, 5.93 will downright scare you. He wore down in August (2-3, 6.32) and September (1-2, 5.93), like most of his choking Mets 'mates.

But what he did on the penultimate day of the season is what he is capable of: 7 2/3 innings, one hit, 14 strikeouts. He flirted with a no-hitter, four outs away for a team that never has had one, as the Mets flirted with historic disaster.

Here is more good news: His .233 BAA is better than all those aces above him here and good for second-best among all the third-year starters (see our No. 5).

And, drum roll, he turns 27 in May. Sleeper synergy that is just too perfect.

The offensively capable Mets should make him a big-time winner, and he should be able to stretch out better through the second half this time around. Last year was really his first full year in the majors after a couple of half seasons before 2007.

5. Matt Cain | 23 | San Francisco Giants

The youngest third-year starting pitcher this year works for a bad Giants ballclub that won't score many runs. That is the real reason he has lost more games than anyone in this category (29) and was a 16-game loser last season.

Yes, we manage to hype a 16-game loser!

Heck, we rank this "loser" just outside the top 30 starters in Fantasy -- for good reason. His .221 BAA is stuff of legends and his 3.73 ERA is better than all but Weaver and Hamels among this group.

He has walked more batters than anyone in this category (185), but he is second among them in strikeouts (372) and we should remind you he is the youngest of this group, with plenty of room to grow.

6. Rich Hill | 27 | Chicago Cubs

If we have ingrained you properly, you paused and smiled when you saw the age next to his name. Hill is somewhat of a late-blooming lefty, which southpaws tend to be.

He has the third-best career BAA (.235) among third-year starters, albeit with a high ERA (4.39) and just 17 victories in 52 starts. Entering his prime, and with a couple of years under his belt, he should put it all together for a Cubs team that figures to help him win a lot of games. He might even fan more than 200 batters.

James Shields was impressive in 2007. Is there even more in his future this season? (US Presswire)

7. James Shields | 26 | Tampa Bay Rays

Shields might have already celebrated his breakthrough last year, quietly becoming a reliable Fantasy option despite pitching for one of the worst teams in baseball. The fact he is entering his third year suggests there is even more to come.

Shields' career 1.228 WHIP is second to only Hamels in this category, mostly because he has walked just 74 batters in 339 2/3 innings. He started to strike them out, too, last year.

Sure, the Rays look like a poor team now, but they are oozing with elite talent and Shields will be among the reasons they surprise many this season.

8. Pirates pitching staff

LH Tom Gorzelanny, 25, RH Ian Snell, 26, LH Zach Duke, 24, and LH Paul Maholm, 25, won't evoke images of the Braves terrific early '90s trio of Tom Glavine, John Smoltz and Steve Avery, but they are arguably the best set of young arms to arrive in unison since then.

They are all in this third-year category and each has something going for him, albeit for a bad team. Gorzelanny has the best assortment of stuff, Snell throws the hardest, Duke has the best polish, while we will merely say Maholm is the craftiest. Snell, with his consistent mid-90s heat, has struck out more batters than all of the names in this category. He has also pitched the most innings.

The fact they pitch for the Pirates is good news in our book, because it will actually allow them to slip some on Draft Day.

9. Boof Bonser and Scott Baker | 26 | Minnesota Twins

Another cheap-way-out, combo-pick here. Baker, the control-and-command guy, will turn 27 this September, while Bonser, more of the knockout guy, turns that age just after the season. The retooling Twins are expected to count on both of these third-year arms.

Baker is a strike-thrower, having walked a mere 59 batters in 280 2/3 innings. Bonser is more of a bat-misser we like to see in Fantasy.

Although the Twins don't figure to truly contend, Justin Morneau (27, by the way) and Joe Mauer figure to help make this pair of righties sleepers this season.

10. Scott Olsen | 24 | Florida Marlins

We are not sold on this left-hander's makeup -- he is a hothead whose temper tends to get him in trouble with teammates, management and even police. But perhaps his anger and cockiness could be put to better use this season.

It might have to, because he enters spring as the Marlins' possible No. 1. That is like being called the smartest dummy, though, because they are rebuilding again and figure to be a last-place team.

Olsen is the second-youngest third-year starter, but he has the fourth-most strikeouts and innings in the category. His age will be our excuse for his past indiscretions and his talent is our reason for liking him as a sleeper in deeper leagues.

Others with around 40-70 career starts who we expect to be their best yet: RH Zack Greinke, KC; RH Sergio Mitre, FLA; RH Edwin Jackson, TB; LH Chuck James, ATL; RH Kyle Davies, KC; LH Sean Marshall, CHC; LH Gustavo Chacin, TOR and RH Brandon Backe, HOU.

You can e-mail Emack your Fantasy Baseball questions to dmfantasybaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Attn: Third-year starting pitchers outlook in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses or answers to all questions.